There was an interesting and insightful analysis published this week on the website of Railway Age arguing that VIA Rail Canada faces an existential crisis.
Journalist David Thomas said VIA faces challenges caused by lost ridership during the COVID-19 pandemic, an aging fleet, competition with commuter rail trains for station slots, and the fact that many Canadians have found alternative ways to travel other than by rail.
Even worse, VIA can’t rely on a federal infrastructure stimulus program such as that approved last year by the U.S. Congress to help save it.
Thomas said VIA’s gloomy future is foreshadowed in an obscure corner of its 2021-2025 Corporate Plan and almost hidden away on its website.
In his assessment, Thomas said if current trends continue, VIA will be left with a withered network of routes and services with even the carrier’s longtime flagship train, The Canadian, at risk of extinction.
Thomas writes that VIA itself appears “downright gloomy about its prospects” due to its dependence upon freight railroads and terminal operators whose self interests often clash with those of VIA.
“Because it cannot readily add frequencies, control departure, arrival and trip times or on-time performance, the company will eventually reach a saturation point where no tactical or strategic improvements can compensate these material operating constraints,” Thomas wrote.
“The eventual outcome to not addressing these elements will be both financial and reputational. Fewer passengers will imply lower revenues, poor operating conditions will increase costs, and the combination of those conditions will result in increased government subsidies and harm to the corporation’s brand.”
There have been a few glimmers of hope in recent months, including resumption of some services suspended during the pandemic. These include the Montreal-Halifax Ocean and the thrice-weekly Winnipeg to Churchill service.
VIA has taken delivery of new equipment from Siemens Mobility that will be used in corridor service on the Quebec City-Montreal-Toronto-Windsor route.
As Thomas sees it, VIA’s short term future hinges on a rebound of domestic travel and global tourism. Its long term future will depend on the willingness of the federal government to commit to large-scale funding of the service.
The analysis can be read at https://www.railwayage.com/news/for-via-rail-an-existential-crisis/