A study projects that self-driving cars could have an adverse effect on rail passenger ridership, reducing it by 40 percent.
The study by the Boston Consulting Group, titled “Will Autonomous Vehicles Derail Trains?” suggests that in some communities trains could be replaced by self-driving motor vehicles.
“The advent of autonomous vehicles could well affect passenger rail travel as profoundly as did the automobile 125 years ago,” the report states.
It remains to be seen when self-driving vehicles will appear on roads and streets on a large scale.
A number of pilot programs are underway by such companies as Tesla, Uber and Google.
Uber recently began a test program of driverless cars in Pittsburgh and the U.S. Department of Department of Transportation has written new regulations for the cars.
The Boston group report cited a survey of 5,500 people in 10 countries that found that 50 percent of them would ride in a driverless car.
The Boston group said an advantage of self-driving vehicles is that they can deliver passengers right to the doorstep of where they want to do.
The study also said that the technology to regulate autonomous vehicles would cost less than a passenger rail system.
Passenger rail carriers could take advantage of self-driving vehicles, the study said, by having a fleet of such vehicles at the ready to take passenger the last few miles of their journey once they step off a train.
Not all rail passenger advocates agree with the conclusions of the study.
Andy Kunz, president and CEO of the U.S. High Speed Rail Association, told Trains magazine that the idea that driverless cars would replace passenger trains is “absurd.”
“They want to spend a trillion dollars to try to make cars operate closely spaced as a ‘platoon’ with no proof whatsoever it will ever work, when we already have trains that rapidly move people closely spaced together, and have been proven and successful for 150 years,” Kunz said. “There is no way this driverless car system will ever come close to moving the high numbers of people across a region that high speed rail can do now.”
Kunz cautioned that driverless cars could become the target of hackers, citing how Chinese security researchers figured out how to control a Tesla car remotely.
“They think people are going to get into their driverless car, program in a destination, and then sit back and read the newspaper while the vehicle does the navigating, when we already have taxis, Uber, and trains that do this now without having to invent anything new,” Kunz said.
Also critical of the report was the National Association of Railroad Passengers, which said the report ignores new trends in resettlement patterns that have seen young and educated professionals moving to cities and walkable communities.
“That has led to steady growth in passenger rail service, with cities and states looking to develop new rail lines and multi-modal stations,” NARP said. “In addition, rail transit is technology that that readily available for the development of passenger rail networks, and it is a mode of transportation that people are familiar with, and can rely on.”